CAB80-8 — Page 163

Page 163

Page 163

4.

Germany is strong enough on land and in the air

135

to defend herself in the west and to maintain offensives in

north and south-east Europe (see paragraph 12 below). She

is strong enough in the air to attack Great Britain and

France simultaneously.

5.

Germany may undertake "restricted Balkan operations"

ie., offensives designed to reach the Adriatic, to capture

Rumania or to prevent a westward thrust by Russia, "with or

without Italian connivance". Allied counter moves in time

to prevent this would be impossible.

Provided Germany had

received, suitable assurances frem Italy, she would be more

likely to undertake a restricted operation in the Balkans than

a far-reaching one, though the former might be a definite

stage towards the latter.

Germany could invade southern Scandinavia at any

time, but is not likely to de se except to secure her iron

ore supplies. It is to her advantage to maintain the status

quo in Scandinavia unless her ore supplies are threatened.

of.

*

8.

Decisive results against the United Kingdom might

achieved by :-

(a) A successful major invasion (stated to be

unlikely).

(b) A total air war (not considered to be to

Germany's advantage).

(c)

Unrestricted offensive against British sea-

borne trade. "We consider that this course of action would offer her the best prospects of décisive results against Great Britain."

Germany cannot defeat the Allies unless the pursues

a more forward policy than she has hitherto adopted. It

would probably be to Germany's advantage to force the war

to an issue in 1940.

-2-

Page 163

Page 163

Page 163