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THIS DOCUMENT IS THE PROPERTY OF HIS BRITANNIC MAJESTY'S GOVERNMENT

TO BE KEPT UNDER LOCK AND KEY.

It is requested that special care may be taken to ensure the secrecy of this document.

SECRET.

,0.S. (40) 241(J.P.)

(Also Paper No. J.P(40)22).

COFY NO.

134

WAR

CABINET.

CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE.

POSSIBLE GERMAN ACTION IN THE SPRING OF 1940.

Report by the Joint Planning Sub-Committee.

The Chiefs of Staff instructed us to amplify, and

comment upon, the joint appreciation of possible German

action in the Spring of 1940 prepared by the Allied Military

Committee. We have accordingly examined the appreciation

and we submit below a brief summary of the Paper, followed

by our comments. Amplification appears to us unnecessary

as the appreciation itself is a comprehensive document

covering all the necessary ground.

2.

BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE APPRECIATION.

The appreciation points out that there is no reason

to expect an internal collapse of Germany for some months.

Germany may have to secure her vital interests in Scandinavia

or the Balkans against Russian aggression. She must keep

Italy at least a benevolent neutral. By avoiding major

operations, she may hope to leave the door open for an

early peace.

Neither submarines nor mines are likely to prove a

Intensification

decisive weapon, even i if developed fully.

of the air attack on British sea-borne trade (particularly

if extended to the west coast) is a more serious threat.

器 C.O.S. (39) 91st Conclusions, Minutę 2.

c.o.s. (40) 217.

241 (J.P.)

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