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4.
Germany is strong enough on land and in the air
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to defend herself in the west and to maintain offensives in
north and south-east Europe (see paragraph 12 below). She
is strong enough in the air to attack Great Britain and
France simultaneously.
5.
Germany may undertake "restricted Balkan operations"
ie., offensives designed to reach the Adriatic, to capture
Rumania or to prevent a westward thrust by Russia, "with or
without Italian connivance". Allied counter moves in time
to prevent this would be impossible.
Provided Germany had
received, suitable assurances frem Italy, she would be more
likely to undertake a restricted operation in the Balkans than
a far-reaching one, though the former might be a definite
stage towards the latter.
Germany could invade southern Scandinavia at any
time, but is not likely to de se except to secure her iron
ore supplies. It is to her advantage to maintain the status
quo in Scandinavia unless her ore supplies are threatened.
of.
*
8.
Decisive results against the United Kingdom might
achieved by :-
(a) A successful major invasion (stated to be
unlikely).
(b) A total air war (not considered to be to
Germany's advantage).
(c)
Unrestricted offensive against British sea-
borne trade. "We consider that this course of action would offer her the best prospects of décisive results against Great Britain."
Germany cannot defeat the Allies unless the pursues
a more forward policy than she has hitherto adopted. It
would probably be to Germany's advantage to force the war
to an issue in 1940.
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