TNAG-2790-FCO40-4029-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1993 — Page 179

11. Kenya: widespread violence arising out of breakdown in transition to

multi-party rule and/or economic

deterioration.

CONFIDENTIAL

£1bn UK investments; 43,000 UK British etc citizens eligible for potential evacuation; significant trade interests.

Opposition reject election results. Press harassment. shortages etc. Increase in criminal violence in towns.

Food

political transition; pressing government to agree IMF programme.

Close monitoring of situation.

12.

Iran:

(i) external:

obtains Soviet nuclear

weapons, complicating regional relationships (ii) internal:

Rafsanjani's pragmatic reforms fail;

emergence of new

foreign policy radicalism;

(iii) Rushdie

assassinated by Iranian agents.

13. Former Soviet republics:

Tajikistan, Georgia, Moldova. Increasing internal conflict threatens Russian population, Russia intervenes militarily in their defence; protracted conflict.

£500 million trade

Limited unless Tajik instability spread as far as Kazakhstan (British Gas contract); credibility of UN/CSCE; might require diplomatic

confrontation with

Russia (especially in case of Moldova).

CONFIDENTIAL

9

Intelligence. Rafsanjani

not elected in June.

Breakdown of CSCE/UN efforts; (Moldova)

vote for reunification with Romania;

(Georgia) Shavardnadze increasingly challenged by Kitovani;

(Tajikistan) strident statements by Iranians.

Close monitoring of situation; support for CSCE/UN efforts

Support for CSCE process;