CONFIDENTIAL
Nagorno-Karabakh:
(i) presidents of Armenia/Azerbaijan replaced by hardliners looking for military solution; or
(ii) outright Azeri victory leading to ethnic cleansing.
15. Ethiopia: Rupture between OLF/EPRF leads to
resumed civil war.
BP oil contracts in Azerbaijan; credibility of CSCE process; Turkey and Russia could be drawn into any overt war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Limited. But new humanitarian crisis would need costly relief operation.
Breakdown of CSCE process; refusal of belligerents to negotiate further; recognition of N-K by Armenians; escalation of conflict.
Stalemate in mediation
efforts, relations worsen, more armed clashes.
informal discussion of shift towards shuttle diplomacy; possible UK membership of revised Minsk group.
Helping to promote
reconciliation. If progress
stalls, may need stronger
international effort including
warning parties of
consequences of resumed conflict.
16. Gambia: Senegalese try to take over, Nigerians react.
1. Zaire: Complete
llapse of government
break-away of a ion.
Possible evacuation of tourists. Possible reaction of tabloid press ("Black Frogs attack plucky British Commonwealth state").
Marginal within Zaire. But refugee crisis could destabilise neighbours.
Growing Senegalese concern about Nigerian influence; military activity near border.
Mobutu leaves. Sustained outbreak of looting.
Maintain liaison with French in Dakar, Gambians and Nigerians.
British Community already advised to leave. Embassy thinned and evacuation plans in hand.
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10
Monitoring situation;
diplomatic and medical support
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