CONFIDENTIAL
8. Cyprus: violence arising out of
frustration at lack of
settlement and/or
provoked by rejectionists
on both sides.
Sovereign Base Areas, guarantor power.
Lack of settlement, then frustration at lack of international interest: or outline agreement deliberately being jeopardised by rejectionists on one both sides.
Actively assisting UNSG's efforts to help secure an agreement acceptable to both sides.
9. Angola: continuing civil war.
Limited, but rules out early expansion of trade.
Continued refusal of UNITA to negotiate, level of fighting remains high.
Support UN efforts to promote mediation efforts, urging US to use leverage with UNITA
10. Hong Kong: Chinese
interference undermines
international
confidence leading to collapse of banking system/large-scale emigration/riots the streets.
Direct until 1 July 1997 when HMG would come under pressure bail out banking system, and to cope with massive immigration pressures.
Sharply deteriorating relationship with Chinese eg following upheaval in China and emergence of hard-line leadership.
Cabinet Office has coordinated contingency plans for dealing with immigration; monetary arrangements for coping with banking crisis; garrison for civil unrest.
CONFIDENTIAL
8
Pressing government and opposition to facilitate
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