11. Kenya: widespread violence arising out of breakdown in transition to
multi-party rule and/or economic
deterioration.
CONFIDENTIAL
£1bn UK investments; 43,000 UK British etc citizens eligible for potential evacuation; significant trade interests.
Opposition reject election results. Press harassment. shortages etc. Increase in criminal violence in towns.
Food
political transition; pressing government to agree IMF programme.
Close monitoring of situation.
12.
Iran:
(i) external:
obtains Soviet nuclear
weapons, complicating regional relationships (ii) internal:
Rafsanjani's pragmatic reforms fail;
emergence of new
foreign policy radicalism;
(iii) Rushdie
assassinated by Iranian agents.
13. Former Soviet republics:
Tajikistan, Georgia, Moldova. Increasing internal conflict threatens Russian population, Russia intervenes militarily in their defence; protracted conflict.
£500 million trade
Limited unless Tajik instability spread as far as Kazakhstan (British Gas contract); credibility of UN/CSCE; might require diplomatic
confrontation with
Russia (especially in case of Moldova).
CONFIDENTIAL
9
Intelligence. Rafsanjani
not elected in June.
Breakdown of CSCE/UN efforts; (Moldova)
vote for reunification with Romania;
(Georgia) Shavardnadze increasingly challenged by Kitovani;
(Tajikistan) strident statements by Iranians.
Close monitoring of situation; support for CSCE/UN efforts
Support for CSCE process;