TNAG-0295-FCO40-331-Long-term-study-of-the-future-of-Hong-Kong-1971 — Page 22

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(c)

quickly, would be that Hong Kong would become a financial

liability to HMG. By the middle 1970s certain decisions

will have to be taken, for example on electricity and

telephone franchises which could expose HMG's way of

thinking, though it should be possible to find ways and

means of getting round this problem.

There can be no question of a large scale movement of

population from Hong Kong elsewhere. The majority,

including some 2 million citizens of the UK and Colonies,

would, if the Colony became part of China, pass under

Chinese Communism against their will.

(a) The Chinese have the capability to occupy the Colony by

overwhelming force of arms without warning and with no

hope of a successful military defence on the part of the

In these circumstances an evacuation, even

(e)

Garrison.

of UK citizens, would be a hazardous operation and very

few could probably be extricated.

In certain circumstances it might suit the Chinese not

to permit Britain to abandon the administration of the

Colony, but to insist on our remaining in most humiliating

conditions with real control in their hands. In this

event it would be open to us to calltheir bluff, although

this could almost certainly involve some degree of violence.

Although the situation viewed from HMG's position seems

thoroughly uncomfortable, ranging from the possibility of major

military disaster or humiliating expulsion to a negotiated withdrawal

involving at best the transfer of considerable numbers of citizens

6.

3

/of

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