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(c)
quickly, would be that Hong Kong would become a financial
liability to HMG. By the middle 1970s certain decisions
will have to be taken, for example on electricity and
telephone franchises which could expose HMG's way of
thinking, though it should be possible to find ways and
means of getting round this problem.
There can be no question of a large scale movement of
population from Hong Kong elsewhere. The majority,
including some 2 million citizens of the UK and Colonies,
would, if the Colony became part of China, pass under
Chinese Communism against their will.
(a) The Chinese have the capability to occupy the Colony by
overwhelming force of arms without warning and with no
hope of a successful military defence on the part of the
In these circumstances an evacuation, even
(e)
Garrison.
of UK citizens, would be a hazardous operation and very
few could probably be extricated.
In certain circumstances it might suit the Chinese not
to permit Britain to abandon the administration of the
Colony, but to insist on our remaining in most humiliating
conditions with real control in their hands. In this
event it would be open to us to calltheir bluff, although
this could almost certainly involve some degree of violence.
Although the situation viewed from HMG's position seems
thoroughly uncomfortable, ranging from the possibility of major
military disaster or humiliating expulsion to a negotiated withdrawal
involving at best the transfer of considerable numbers of citizens
6.
3
/of
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