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10.
Paragraph 33.
Few
The potential efficiency of the Nationalist Air Force appears to have been over-estimated. The Force is believed to possess approximately 100% reserves of aircraft and a large quantity of spares. However, even if the whole of the Force defects to the Communists it is unlikely that any appreciable proportion of reserves or spares would be transferred from Formosa to the mainland. The Communists would therefore have difficulty in maintaining the defector's aircraft, and the maximum serviceability to be expected would be about 20%. of the aircrew have much experience of operations, and their morale is likely to be low in the absence of suitable cash incentives. Fuel and ammunition supplies would also present a major problem in the absence of Soviet assistance. The effect- iveness of the Force on defection would therefore be low, and even if fuel and ammunition were sufficient, it is unlikely that it would be able to operate at a greater intensity than 500-700 sorties per month. Even if the force operates from Formosa, with the benefit of its existing spares and mainte- nance organisation, it is unlikely that it would achieve more than 1000 sorties per month. These rates would be decreased by casualties.
11.
Paragraph 35.
The air threat to Hong Kong would also appear to have been overestimated. Even if the whole of the Nationalist Air Force defects it is unlikely that the size of the initial raid would exceed:
Fighter bomber Medium bomber
Heavy bomber
70 aircraft
30 aircraft
12 aircraft
The highest rate that could be expected subsequently is likely to be:
Fighter bomber
550
Medium bomber
250
Sorties per month,
Heavy bomber
50
12.
Paragraph 38.
*
According to the latest assessment
the Communist naval strength shown in paragraph 38 appears to be out of date. J.I.C. (FE) will however in the meantime have received the fortnightly reviews containing the new figures.
13,
Paragraph 43.
We see no reason why any Soviet forces which should be despatched to China should be restricted to the area north of the Yangtse.
*
J.I.C. (49) 44/4
* J.I.C. (49) 44 Series.
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