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ANNEX
COMMENTS BY JOINT INTELLIGENCE STAFF
ON
J.I.C. (FE) PAPER "THE THREATS TO HONG
KONG'
?
1.
2.
3.
Paragraph 3.
(a)
In the last sentence, it is suggested that approximately 150,000 Chinese Communist troops might reach the Hong Kong area. We feel that in fact there is no limit to the number of troops which the Communists can deploy in the area, although the number actually employed in an assault on Hong Kong will be very limited owing to the narrowness of the front.
X
(b) In view of the latest information from the Far
East, the date by which the main forces will reach the Canton area is now estimated to be mid-August, and not early July. This bominent also applies to the last line of paragraph 14 of the Annex.
Paragraph 4.
(a)
We assume that the phrase "During this period" at the beginning of the paragraph refers to the Cold War period as covered by paragraphs 14-21 of the Annex.
(b) We consider that guerilla raids across the
frontier (vide last line of page 1) are most unlikely once the Communist regular forces have closed on Hong Kong. The infiltration of agents in considerable numbers is much more probable.
Paragraph 6.
We feel that it is too strong to state that a total embargo against Hong Kong's trade with the mainland would be disastrous. Well over half of the Colonies trade is with countries other than China... This general conclusion has been confirmed by the Governor recently.
4.
1,
Paragraph 9.
We consider that not more than about forty medium and heavy bombers, supported by 70 fighter bombers, are likely to be used in the initial air attack against Hong Kong if the whole of the Nationalist Air Force, defects to the Communists. The scale of attack will decrease according to the proportions of the Force which remains loyal.
x Reference J.I.C. (49) 44 Final
Telegram Hong Kong to Colonial Office No. 579 dated 14th June, 1949.
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