Page 268
Page 268
7
to complete. It is, nevertheless, possible that in the event of emergency the Government of India might be able to spare the balance of the three brigades even though the new units had not been completed. To counter sporadic air attacks on Abadan by bombers based on Caucasian aerodromes, some fighter aircraft and anti-aircraft defences would be necessary to act as a deterrent. The necessary aircraft could only be found from those at present earmarked for the defence of Egypt or Turkey. No anti-aircraft units are available for this purpose in India or the Middle East.
20. If Iran were reduced to a state of chaos, there would be repercussions in Iraq, and we might require in Iraq and the Anglo-Iranian oilfields a total of three divisions with the requisite air support. These land forces could not be found from our resources in India and the Middle East until late in 1940, and then could only be employed if sufficient progress had been made in the provision of maintenance requirements. The possibility of providing the requisite forces earlier than this date is dependent upon whether they can be provided, and prepared in time, by the Government of India, and is under urgent examination. There would, moreover, be no anti-aircraft units available in the Middle East or India to accompany these forces, and the provision of aircraft would be a matter of considerable difficulty.
230
General.
INDIA AND AFGHANISTAN.
21. Once hostilities between the Allies and Russia had begun, it is unlikely that the Soviet Government would lose any time in taking action against India and Afghanistan. It would clearly be in the Russian and the German interest to create in India and on her frontiers the maximum diversion of Allied strength. Russia may therefore be expected to make the fullest use of the land and air forces that she can dispose in the Central Asian Military District. She would also make full use of agents to stir up revolutionary activity within India.
Soviet Land Threat.
22. With the forces normally located in this area Russia could rapidly occupy those provinces of Afghanistan which lie to the north of the Hindu Kush. Her object would be to bring about the fall of the Kabul Government and generally disturb the remainder of Afghanistan and the whole of the North-West Frontier of India. A land advance on India could be undertaken by Russia only as a long-term project, if at all, and it would, in any event, be beyond the capacity of the forces now stationed in the Central Asian military district.
Soviet Air Threat.
23. The small force of Soviet bombers at present located in the Central Asian Military District could reach objectives in any part of Afghanistan and certain important centres in the north-west of India, such as Peshawar. A few long-range bombers exist elsewhere in Russia, and could be moved into the district, thus bringing Indian centres of population as far as Lahore and Quetta within range of attack; but Russia would require some months in which to concentrate a formidable bomber force against India, and her ability to do so would depend upon the extent of her air force commitments in other areas and upon the effects of Allied counter-measures, particularly against the Caucasian oil supply.
24. Russian air attacks on Afghanistan would probably be directed against Kabul as a primary objective in order to drive out the Afghan Government and so lead to the disintegration of all forces of law and order. Air attacks on India might cause considerable damage in the crowded cities of the north-west. Their principal result, however, would be to create acute internal security problems for us, particularly in the frontier districts where serious tribal disorders might result.
Page 268
Page 268
Page 268