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Russia will start opérations against Turkey or Iran, and she may well hesitate to pursue a more forward policy in the Balkans. If hostilities broke out between us and Russia, however, and if Turkey or Iran became involved, Russia might then undertake certain limited operations.

14. We could not exclude the possibility of Russian submarines penetrating into the Mediterranean, although their passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be hazardous, particularly if Turkey were on our side and adequate anti-submarine defences were established in the Straits. The equipment for these defences, however, will not be ready before the middle of 1940. Russian submarines should succeed in entering the Mediterranean, they could develop a serious threat to our sea communications and we should have to despatch anti-submarine forces from home waters.

15. In the Balkans limited Russian operations might be aimed at gaining control of the Roumanian oil supplies, either in collaboration or in competition with the Germans. Against Turkey they might be designed to gain depth in front of the Batum defences, and in Iran their object might be to gain depth in front of the Baku defences and to facilitate air operations against the Anglo- Iranian oilfields, the Iraqi oilfields and other objectives in Iraq.

16. The spread of the war to the Balkans would, in our opinion, be to our disadvantage, but this is not a situation which is likely to result from a Russian attempt to strike at the Allies, and it is, therefore, outside the scope of this paper. With regard to the Caucasus, we do not think the Russian forces are 11 any state to undertake operations against the Turkish army in position. The question of Iran and Iraq is examined in more detail below.

IRAN AND IRAQ.

Land Operations.

17. The possibility of a Russian land offensive directed on the Anglo- Iranian oilfields is remote, both because of Turkey's position on the flank of any such advance, and because of the heavy strain that would be imposed on Russia's resources. Russia might, however, overrun the northern districts of Iran which lie between the Turkish border and the Caspian sea, and in fact her old sphere of influence. This invasion would no doubt be accompanied by attempts to stir up the Kurds on the Iraqi-Iranian frontier and so cause trouble in the Iraqi oilfields. We do not think it probable that the Russians could penetrate more deeply into Iran, in view of the paucity of communications which could in any event be subjected to Allied air attack. A Russian air bombardment of Teheran and other centres of population in Iran might, however, result in the disintegration of the central authority and throw Iran into a state of turmoil.

Air Operations.

18. Russia has a small number of long-range bombers which could reach the Anglo-Iranian oilfields and chief towns in Iraq from aerodromes in the Caucasus. Sporadic attacks on a light scale could be made, and these might inflict serious material damage at Abadan if this area were to remain devoid of air defences. The effect of bombing on the Iraqi population might well result in internal disorders which the Iraq Army would be incapable of controlling. In this event, our land communications connecting Palestine with the Persian Gulf would be seriously interrupted. It is possible that modern German bombers, or even complete German squadrons, might be operated in conjunction with Russian air forces and appreciably increase the efficacy of attacks, but this is not likely in the early stages of the war.

Allied Defence Measures.

19. On land a force of three brigades is the minimum necessary to provide for the internal security of the Anglo-Iranian oilfields and Basra, which might become the scenes of serious disorder resulting from Russian air action and tribal risings. Of these three brigades one is available in India now. The remainder have been offered by the Government of India on condition that the troops are replaced by the raising of new units, a process which may take five months

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