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3.
ithout going into a long appreciation of possible enemy loves in the Balkans or thi☺ugh Spain, which will be dealt with by the enemy appreciation committee under the Chiefs of Staff, it is apparent that the German General Staff in order to rectify their present serious position consequent firstly on their failure to exploit the situation of July, 1940, and, secondly, on the growing strength accruing to us with the help of the U.S.A., must concentrate on a knockout blow against this country.
4.
5.
this.
Such a knockout blow may take two forms:
(a) Blockade.
(b) Invasion,
As regards blockade they are already attempting
Our naval and air measures will prevent success.
There remains invasion which it is thought is bond to be attempted in the hope of snatching a victory.
6.
It seems more than possible that in any attempt at invasion Germany will hope to achieve success through the surprise use of gas in combination with the employment of sea, land and air forces, and for this we
ust be fully prepared. Our immunity hitherto may have tended to make us relax certain important precautions.
It also seems to me that we must be prepared for Germany making this attempt at an early date, possibly the Spring of this year, before American help in any large quantity reaches us, and before the economic position in Germany especially in regard to oil deteriorates seriously.
7.
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The surprise use of gas in 1914 nearly enabled the enemy to break right through and created almost a panic amonst disciplined troops. Its sudden employment in 1941 in connection with the attempt at invasion, and against not only the military but the civilian population is a serious danger to our security.
8. I know the Naval, Army and Air Staffs are fully alive to the possibility of gas warfare.
I am not sure, however, that the country generally is fully prepared for the sudden attack, or that our measures for keting it are being organised on the same scale as those that we are now making for meeting the dangers from other forms of attack, for example, the massed "incendiary" attack.
9.
It is doubtful if today more than 70, of the civilian population have the gas mask originally supplied to them. It is equally doubtful if the gas masks which remain are efficient.
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