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Italy
4.
Italy's interests in bringing Japan into the war
appear to be considerable, as in that event she might hope that we would be compelled to weaken our naval forces in the Mediterranean. Furthermore, our lines of communication to the Middle East in the Indian Ocean would be subject to an increased scale of attack.
Japan.
5.
Japan does not appear to have gained any advantage commensurate with her obligations under the pact unless she has obtained some further quid pro quo which has not been divulged, e.g.:-
(a) an offer by Germany to mediate in the Sino-
Japanese dispute.
(b) an acknowledgement of her right to annex Allied
(c)
possessions in the Far East;
an undertaking by Germany to press the U.S.S.R. to adopt a more accommodating attitude to- wards her,
6.
If, indeed, these are the counter-concessions the which Japan has ontained from Germany, the present tempo of the Japanese Government may possibly suggest to them that they had better cash in as quickly as possible, before either Hitler or Stalin change their minds, while the United States Government is handicapped by the impending presidential election and while we are suffering the maximum embarrassment in Europe. One cannot therefore preclude the possibility that Japan will take measures in the immediate future to obtain complete control of the Netherlands East Indies and Indo-China.
Moreover, although we consider it improbable, we cannot entirely exclude the possibility that Japan may go further and launch an attack against ourselves arranged to synchronise with German or Italian action in the Mediterranean and the Near East, which would be calculated to paralyse
our powers of resistance. Apart from this, the fact that Japan has now aligned herself definitely with the Axis is likely to result in an increase in indirect Japanese assistance to our enemies.
REACTIONS TO THE PACT.
U.S.S.R.
77.
On
The reactions of the U.S.S.R. to the Pact are uncertain. On the one hand, there are indications that the U.S.S.R. may now be inclined to adopt a less unbending attitude towards the Allies and the U.S.A. the other hand, it has been suggested that a non-aggression pact between the U.S.S.R. and Japan may be imminent. In either case we believe that Russian policy will be entirely one of self-interest, and that the potential threat to Japan will still remain.
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