FCO_49_622_PLANNING_PAPER_ON_HONG_KONG_1976 — Page 31

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approaches. The dangers of a declining economy and an

increasingly ungovernable society seem obvious. A

crucial difficulty for the timing of an approach to

China is that meaningful discussion presupposes the

existence of an ordered, well-established Government in

Peking. It seemed likely that the present Chinese

leadership had reached agreement on the handling of the

succession to Mao Tse-tung and Chou En-lai but the

unexpected appointment of Hua Kuo-feng as Acting Prime

Minister demonstrates the uncertainties which are likely

to continue at least until Mao's death and probably beyond;

and there remains the question of whether the successor

Government can impose itself on China as a whole which

may well not be apparent for some years. We will also

need time to assess its political stability and the

character of its policies both internal and external (not

least towards Taiwan) before we can determine the best

negotiating posture. These considerations point to

negotiations in the mid-1980s; but obviously the question

will need to be kept under constant review in the light

of the evolving situation in China and in the Colony.

Delay is not without risk eg of a crisis in the Colony

as a result of instability in China similar to 1967;

but our experience of events then provides us with some

guide as to the signs of approaching trouble and we need

not be as unprepared (Annex A). And delay has

advantages in permitting the possible evolution of a less

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