FCO_49_622_PLANNING_PAPER_ON_HONG_KONG_1976 — Page 30

the Colony is indeed a single entity (although Crown

leases to private individuals in the New Territories

are granted for periods of less than the remaining

portion of the 1997 lease).

15.

The existence of a termination date of the

lease and the Chinese attitude to all three treaties

produces a paradoxical situation. HMG, and foreign

investors in the Colony, must base policy on the assumption that 1997 could mark a watershed in Hong Kong's affairs.

The Chinese appear to regard us, but not necessarily

themselves, as bound by the New Territories lease or

by the other treaties relating to Hong Kong. Chinese

policy can therefore be based on the proposition that

repossession of all three areas of Hong Kong will take

place at any time suitable to China's interests.

assessment of their interests in paragraphs 9 and 10

above leads to the conclusion that they are unlikely to

try to recover the Colony in the 1980s either by quick

forcible takeover or by negotiation; and if the continuatic

The

of special arrangements would be in their interests, they

may well be able to find a formula to overcome the

pressure imposed by the 1997 date.

16.

But from our point of view it will become

increasingly desirable to have at least an implicit

understanding and preferably a clear-cut agreement with

China about the future of the Colony. Both investors and

the population at large will almost certainly begin to quest Page 30 of 203

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Page 30 ion their future with increasing insistence as 1997

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