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of Mao; and that there may be a struggle for power

between the two with consequent disturbances in China

similar to the Cultural Revolution which spilled over into

the Colony in 1967. The pragmatic arguments would seem

likely to weaken over the years: but even so the Chinese

might be persuaded of the advantage of a continuing

separate status for Hong Kong as an outlet for her exports

and centre for her invisible trade; and of the disadvantage

of any attempt quickly to absorb a reluctant population

accustomed to a different way of life to that on the

mainland. On balance a sudden change of attitude by

China seems unlikely but the long term trend is probably

unfavourable to the prospect of Hong Kong's continued

existence as a Colony. e f

ourselves

14.

Who we

A major consideration is the running out of

the lease on the New Territories in 1997. On our inter-

pretation of international law, there is a distinction

between the status of the New Territories held on a 99-

year lease under the Second Convention of Peking (1898),

and that of the Island of Victoria, the southern tip

of the Kowloon peninsula and Stonecutters Island ceded in

perpetuity by the 1842 Treaty of Nanking and the 1860

Convention of Peking. However, the logic of the Chinese position that all three treaties were "unequal" and hence

invalid makes the distinction more theoretical than

real and in fect Hong Kong Government policy in such Page 29 of 203

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1.6.

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