CO_968_451_DEFENCE_OF_HONG_KONG_1955_1956 — Page 64

28

E/125

L.I.C.(H.K.)/1(Final)

Dated 9 May 1956

SCALE AND NATURE OF A POSSIBLE CHINESE COMMUNIST ATTACK

AGAINST THE COLONY OF HONG KONG UP TO THE END OF 1958

REPORT BY THE LOCAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE (HONG KONG)

For

The scale and nature of a possible Chinese Communist attack against the Colony of Hong Kong in the event of a general war up to the end of 1956 has already been appraised.* Since this appraisal, however, there has been considerable development in airfields and communications in Southern China and in the capabilities of the Chinese Communist Armed Forces. these reasons, we re-examine below the probable scale and nature of an external attack against the Colony up to the end of 1958; our report is at Annex. Any such attack would almost certainly be accompanied or even preceded by internal unrest, terrorism, sabotage and strikes; this, however, has been the subject of a separate study and will not be considered further in this paper.

General

2.

Since Hong Kong is the best port and base in South China, the Chinese Communists would wish to deny it to the Western Allies as early as possible. They would therefore be likely to attack it at an early stage of general hostilities or even as a prelude to them. Adequate forces to ensure success and an carly victory as a morale raiser, would be likely to be employed.

Assumptions

3.

We therefore assume that:-

(a)

An attack on the Colony is likely at an early stage of hostilities or even as a prelude to them.

(b)

The allies, prior to any such attack, would not have started nuclear interdiction against the mainland of China.

X

JIC(TE) (55) 16(Final) dated

28 November 55.

LIC (HK) The Vulnerability of HONG KONG to Non-Military Aggression dated June 55,

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