CAB80-8 — Page 92

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5.

(a)

Short-term military policy for assistance to Turkey, evon with Italian neutrality not assured.

(b) Long-term military policy in the Balkans

and the Near East.

(c) As a main issue in connection with (a) and

(b) above the question of operating an Allied force from Salonica.

71

In order to expedite the discussions by placing the French Representatives in close touch with their own High Command, the Allied Military Committoe as a whole proceeded to Paris on Monday, the 29th January. Some unavoidable delay was experienced after arrival owing to the necessity of examining another more immediate issue, but subsequently a series of meetings took place between Thursday, the 1st, and Sunday, the 4th February.

6.

It was at once apparent that the French High Commend viewed the problem of possible Allied intervention in the Balkans completely differently from the British. Whereas the British view might be described as a minimum strategic defensive, with defence of the Turkish bridge-head as its object and direct assistence to Turkey as its method, the French see prospects of decisive action against Germany becoming possible in the Balkans. The threat to Turkey will, in their opinion, not materialise until either Roumania or Yugo-Slavia has been over-run, . In fact, immediate assistance to Turkey involves the supply of equipment, and perhaps of technical assistance, but not of troops.

77.

The French views can be summarised es follows:-

(a)

(b)

A German attack, with either the Aegean or the

Straits as its goal, is almost certain to come through Yugo-Slavia, since the only through line of communications runs via Belgrade and Nish, and because between Roumania and Bulgaria there are no bridges over the Danube, except at Cernavoda, near Constanza.

If invaded, the Tugo-Slavs will fight, particularly in old Serbia, and in the worst event at least six Yugo-Slav divisions will remain effective, even if German forces drive them eventually over the Macedonian border. This is likely to take months rather then weeks.

(c) The Balkan Pact States are likely to stand

together against German aggression, and such action will cause Bulgaria to delay declaring herself, until at least Northern Yugo-Slavia has been over-run.

(a)

If, on the other hand, Germany invades Roumania,

even though this might be announced as a limited operation, the Balkan Pact States might well go to Roumania's assistance, and invite Allied aid.

and

(e) The Turkish front in Thrace is very narrow,

considerable advantage would accrue to the Allies strategically if two bases of operations could be found. It is also likely that Istanbul will be barely adequate to supply the Turkish

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