Page 409
Japanese action against our shipping and trade in the Indian Ocean might be so serious as to weaken our war effort to the point that the present American aid to Britain word be largely offset. A display of force now, on the other hand, might prevent the Japanese going to war with us at all.
Even if the United States is unwilling at this stage to make an open declaration of her policy, she might be persuaded to make a significant gesture in the Far East such as increasing her Naval forces at Manila and sending a detachment to Singapore.
9.
344
We are strongly of the opinion that we should not rely on this line of approach alone. We suggest that there is every advantage in conveying to the Japanese ourselves a strong warning that if their present policy of southward expansion is continued to the detriment of our vital interests we should be compelled to react in our self defence.
We are of the opinion that the stronger the line we take the more likely are the Japanese to believe that the United States is behind us. In any case we would be instilling doubt and hesitation in their minds.
A determined and unequivocal statement made now is less likely to involve us in war than a policy which leaves Japan uncertain as to our intentions and consequently free to improve her military situation as she wishes. Such a statement would not involve us in giving any guarantee to the Dutch.
(Signed)
11
11
J.G. DILL,. C. F.A. PORTAL, T.S.V. PHILLIPS,
(for C.N.S.).
Great George Street, S.W. 1.,
6th February, 1941,
-2-
Page 409
Page 409
Page 409
Page 409
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.