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J.I.C. (41) 55

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ANNEX II

(5th_FEBRUARY, 1941,

WAR CABINET

JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

JAPANESE INTENTIONS.

Report by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee.

345

1.

We have considered, in the light of the most recent intelligense, the likelihood of Japan making a hostile move in the near future which would lead to war between ourselves- and the Japanese Empire.

2.

There are numerous indications that the Japanese, in view of the publicly admitted failure of their adventure in China, have now committed themselves to a policy of a further move to the South. Whether they are prepared at this stage for a final rupture with ourselves the Dutch and the United States of America cannot yet be affirmed, nor is it ever likely to be. The evidence shows, however, that they are ready to run the risk.

Her

3. It is quite clear that Japan intends to profit from her partnership with the Axis and so allay popular dissatisfaction at the fate of her Chinese adventure. success in Indo-China and Thailand will have encouraged her to embark upon some further step from which she may not be able to retreat even though faced with war.

4. We believe that Japan will take advantage of her role as mediator in the dispute between Thailand and French Indo- China so as to gain naval, military and air bases which would enable her to threaten Malaya, the Netherlands East Indies, North Borneo, and possibly Burma. Of these objectives, we believe that she will probably select. in the first instance, the Netherlands East Indies, and that she intends to move against this territory in the near future, The dmger of a direct move against kalaya is, however, very great, expecially as Japan appears to be taking control f Caminh Bay, Saigon and Bangkok

.

Any move will probably be timed to coincide with a German major offensive.

In the absence of any positive act- by the United States, acting independently or in conjunction with us, we believe that the Japanese will risk a moved Someo

5.

positive act, for example a major reinforcement of the United States Fleet at Manila, might prove a deterrent.

His Majesty's

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