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SECRET.

6TH FEBRUARY, 1941.

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ANNEX I

(t) C.0.S. (41)74)

WAR CABINET.

CHIEFS OF ST..FF COP ITTEE.

343

33

COPY NO.

1.

MEASURES TO AVERT WAR WITE. JAPAN.

Report.

The gravity of the situation in the Far East, to which the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee have drawn attention in their report is now reinforced by a most secret intelligence report.

2. Briefly it appears that the Japanese have decided upon a policy which they realise may involve them in war with the British Empire in the near future.

3.

It is vitally important to the success of our operations against Germany to avoid any further diversion of forces from the main theatre to the Far East. The initiative lies with Japan and unless some action can be taken which will deter her or unless the United States accepts a major share of responsibility in the conduct of the war in the Far East, a situation might arise in which we may be forced to accept a further diversion ourselves.

4.

Apart from the reinforcement of Malaya by one or two additional infantry brigades from Australia or India, the arrival of which will be a matter of some weeks, there is no military move we can make in this theatre in the near future. In any case land reinforcements on this scale are unlikely to act as a deterrent at this' stage.

5.

For these reasons we think the Chiefs of Staff may wish to bring this situation to the notice of the War Cabinet with a view to the immediate intensification of the diplomatic action which is already in train.

6.

We are convinced that if the Japanese could be persuaded that their action might involve them in war with the United States in addition to the British Empire there is a strong probability that they would be deterred from taking it.

77.

We have not been successful in persuading the United States of America. to follow up their recent display of firmness to the point of convincing the Japanese that a further move would involve their active intervention.

8.

A

In view of the urgency of the present situation we suggest the time has come to take up this question with the United States Administration on the ghest level. powerful argument which might be used is that successful

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