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21. During the dry season the possible lines of advance across the Sinai Desert to the Canal are limited by considerations of water supply to the following routes :---

(1.) Rafaa-El Arish-Katia-El Kantara, about 120 miles.

(2.) Rafaɛ-El Arish-Moghara Hills-Ismalia, about 140 miles.

(3.) Akaba-Nekhil-Suez, about 150 miles.

It has been calculated, from the information collected in a military reconnaissance of the Sinai Peninsula, that, even in the hot season, which is most unfavourable for military operations, there is sufficient water along the various routes traversing the desert of Sinai to supply 2,400 camels every twenty-four hours.

In the winter season water is no longer a limiting factor, and the number of troops which could be concentrated upon the banks of the Canal by Turkey would depend rather upon the quantity of transport procurable than upon considerations of water supply.

22. As regards the possible strength of a Turkish raiding force advancing by El Arish, the General Staff estimate that with the present peace distribution of their troops the Turks could place 2,500 men at Ghaza in seven days, and 4,000 more there in ten days.

Within sixteen days they could concentrate at Ghaza 12,000 rifles and 36 guns, and by the 20th day 12,000 rifles, 3,000 sabres and 66 guns in addition.

Within forty-five days, utilising the Syrian Ordu only and moving by land, the Turks might concentrate at Ghaza 70,000 rifles, 3,500 cavalry and 180 guns.

Were the Turks to advance from Akaba as well as from Ghaza, they could probably concentrate there in nine days about 1,500 rifles for an advance on Nekhl.

23. It is possible that the Turks could complete the concentration at Ghaza and Akaba of the small force required for a raid either without our knowledge or on the pretext of carrying out manœuvres in that region. Moreover, as in time of strained relations there will be a natural reluctance to take measures such as the reinforce- ment of troops on the frontier, which might precipitate hostilities, it will probably be considered prudent to assume, as a basis for drawing up a Defence Scheme, that action could not overtly be taken by us until the Turkish force had actually crossed the Egyptian frontier.

24. From Rafaa to the Canal at El Kántara is 120 miles. Taking into consideration the heavy sand tracks and the dearth of water, the General Staff consider that a Turkish force of 5,000-6,000 men could not reach the Canal in less than five or six days from the time they crossed the frontier, even if no opposition either by land or sea were encountered. It will be observed that this estimate of the time required to cross the Sinai Peninsula is considerably greater than that of the local military authorities-seventy-two hours.

25. It must be assumed, therefore, that the raiding force of 5,000 to 6,000 men might reach the Canal on the sixth day after the frontier is crossed.

It is evident that the mobile column from Cairo and the two battalions from Malta-which are the only troops that would be available for three weeks from the time that warning is received by us (see paragraph 11 of this Memorandum)—would be unable to hold 60 miles of front for fifteen days against these numbers.

It seems desirable, therefore, either that the peace garrison should be increased, or that the arrival of the reinforcements should be accelerated or that some alternative line of defence should be sought.

V.-Possible alternative Line of Defence.

26. In the desert lying between the Turko-Egyptian frontier and the Suez Canal there are only three places where wells capable of supplying water in the dry season to a force of any considerable size are to be found, namely, El Arish, Nekhl, and Katia. All the routes leading from Syria to Egypt pass through either El Arish or Nekhl.

By the occupation of El Arish a defender would deny the use of the wells there to a Turkish raiding force, and would compel it to draw all its food, forage, water, and fuel from Ghaza, 48 miles east of El Arish. The road between El Arish and Ghaza runs

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