TNAG-2977-FCO40-1469-Economic-policy-in-Hong-Kong-1982 — Page 81

CONFIDENTIAL # T

Speech by Financial Secretary to

H.K. Society of Security Analysts on 30.9.82

The State of the Hong Kong Economy

My speech tonight sets out the present state of

the Hong Kong economy and revises my budget forecast of

expenditure on the gross domestic product in

in 1982. The

central theme is inevitably the extent to which the

unexpectedly poor performance of the world

is adversely

led

economy

affecting the

as it is by the USA

performance of Hong Kong. This can hardly be a surprise,

though it is a disappointment.

2.

Economists generally agree that the current world

recession is the most severe in fifty years. I would add

my personal belief that only the achievements of a handful

of able and resolute central bankers and ministers have

sustained the international credit structure.

The

many

economies of

forecast to show close to zero growth rates

with unemployment reaching record high levels.

most L.D.Cs is much

industrialised countries are

now

this year,

The lot of

It worse.

is unrealistic to expect

that Hong Kong's economy can insulate itself indefinitely

recession, which is affecting our major export

from this

markets.

Our dependence on external trade is clear.

G.F. 326

CONFIDENTIAL ##