CONFIDENTIAL # 3
2
G.F. 326
3.
In
particular
our export
performance
has been
on
the
gross
affected by the situation in the US, which is our largest
market. In February, when I made my budget forecast
expenditure
of
domestic
product
in
1982,
I
accepted
―
albeit with misgivings
that the US economy would recover
the then current view
somewhat in the second
half of this year SO
would experience a
for the year that,
as a whole,
it
growth of 1%.
But
recovery will
not
come
at fourth quarter the until
the
earliest;
and a
recent
view is
that
the US
economy may
a show
negative
growth
rate
of
about
for 2%
the
year
as
a
whole.
expenditure is consumer
now
expected to show
Similarly,
zero growth compared with a previously expected increase
of 1%.
4.
The economic outlook of
our other major export
markets
(except
China)
also has
become
worse.
For
instance at
the beginning
of this
year
the Japanese
economy was expected to grow by 5% in 1982, but the latest
view is that their growth rate will be only 2.4%.
GNP for
a whole is now forecast to grow by
the OECD countries as only 0.4% this year, compared with the earlier forecast of
1.8%.
CONFIDENTIAL #
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