18. Liberia/Sierra Leone:
(i) Defeat or premature withdrawal of ECOMOG forces in Liberia, collapse of interim Government and/or
(ii) Lawlessness in Sierra Leone,
triggered by Liberian conflict, leads to
complete collapse of government.
19. Togo: Civil war, spilling over into Southern Ghana.
20. Somalia: Armed
resistance to UN presence.
CONFIDENTIAL
(i) Minimal in Liberia; but stabilty of region at risk. Wish to avoid Western intervention.
(ii) Limited. Wish to avoid Western
intervention.
Minimal in Togo, more significant in Ghana.
Humanitarian; credibility of UN efforts.
Taylor/NPFL retakes territory and arms. Nigerians reduce commitment to ECOMOG.
Increase in size of bandit areas. Withdrawal of Nigerian battalion.
Increased terrorist activity, army dissent. Tribal conflict.
Somali criticism of UN deployments; beginnings of hostile action.
for ECOMOG.
Limited military training for Sierra Leoneans; liaising with Nigerians; diplomatic support for ECOMOG in Liberia.
Liaison with US, France, Ghana; British community advised to leave; Ghanaians cautioned against military intervention.
International pressure on all factions to co-operate.
21. Cuba:
central
control collapses leading to an explosion of crime and violence and a mass exodus of refugees.
Implications for regional stability including Dependent Territories.
Growing popular discontent. armed forces.
Unrest in
Close monitoring of situation. Readiness to aid transition to post-communist government when time comes.
CONFIDENTIAL
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