4. Argentina:
return to a hostile relationship with the UK.
5. Belize/Guatemala: new military threat to Belize from Guatemala.
6. Turkey:
internal upheaval.
Crisis over Iraqi-Kurds in the cross-border operation.
7.
Kashmir: serious rift in Indo-Pakistani relations, leading to hostilities.
They could make life more difficult and expensive for us eg threatening the Falklands fisheries, cutting our links to mainland, preventing search for hydrocarbons.
Cannot reduce garrison
as planned.
Substantial:
apart
from Operation Provide Comfort we would be an awkward position, in NATO, Council of Europe etc.
Significant economic political and
commercial interests especially in India. Also large communities from both countries in the UK which could react to hostilities there.
Internal political upheaval; more hostile stance; upgrading of offensive military capability; abandonment of sovereignty umbrella.
Pressure from army on Serrano or military coup.
Growth of terrorism/internal
military activity.
Breakdown of Indo-Pak political talks; collapse of democracy in Pakistan; troop
movements and preparations in either country; advent to power of BJP in India.
Managing the relationship so that we attain our own objectives while persuading Argentina that it remains in her interest to keep a cooperative relationship with us.
offer of £22.5m aid for road projects; decision on withdrawal of garrison
imminent; encouragement to both sides to maintain normalisation.
We have taken lead in improving relationship between the Community and Turkey.
Little prospect of quick resolution to the dispute, but we are urging both sides to develop a dialogue, and would step up our tempo if the temperature rises.
CONFIDENTIAL
7
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