CRISIS SCENARIO
CONFIDENTIAL
WATCHLIST
BRITISH INTERESTS
WARNING SIGNS
ACTION IN HAND OR BEING CONSIDERED
1.
Mozambique:
implementation of peace agreements likely to be turbulent; elections
· probably not until July 1994; weapons likely to be hidden, sold on, or used in banditry.
Minimal though we give a lot of aid.
The Angolan situation: Mozambique could go same way.
Training of unified Mozambican army by British team in Zimbabwe. Participation in four commissions set up to implement Peace Agreement.
2.
North Africa: Islamic extremists. Islamic fundamentalists take over in Algeria, and/or become focus of opposition to Mubarak in Egypt.
3. Jordan: regime collapses. Five way power struggle (Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Palestinians).
Limited in Algeria: but Egypt key player in Arab world and force for moderation in peace process.
Limited. The end of the regime with closest ties to us would further erode our position in the Middle East.
Increase in communal violence; penetration of security apparatus.
King Hussein's health
Little we can do to prevent internal change.
Little we can do to prevent internal change.
CONFIDENTIAL
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