15. Cambodia:
peace plan
breaks down
CONFIDENTIAL
Delays in implementing the peace plan will add to the costs of our contribution to UNTAC. If the peace plan failed it would be difficult to withdraw UNTAC and we could find ourselves involved through the UN in a prolonged civil war.
UNTAC proceeding with the peace plan without the Khmer Rouge. We are encouraging the international community to think hard about the post-election security situation, so UNTAC can be withdrawn by September.
16. North Korea:(i) Kim Il-Sung dies; major political and/or economic destabilisation ensues; or
(ii) Crisis over failure to comply with IAEA nuclear inspections escalates; threat or use of force by North against South Korea.
17. Saudi Arabia: Political and/or solvency crisis. Either could provoke the other.
(i) Indirect. But massive assistance by South and/or population exodus from North would affect Southern economy and our interests there. In event of reunification we would be involved through our seat on the Armistice Commission.
(ii) Credibility of non-proliferation regime. If North Korea acted militarily, the South would look first to the USA; but also perhaps to traditional allies like the UK.
Major: jobs, especially aerospace dependence on Al Yamamah. Destabilisation of Gulf states.
(i) Cannot administer elixir of life and would not want to do so.
(ii) Action at UNSC to get North Koreans to reconsider leaving NPT; comply with IAEA regulations; working on Chinese and others who might have influence.
Hope it does not happen until Al Yamamah paid for. Watch for warning signs (assassination of King Fahd; market unease at Saudi borrowing; religious
fundamentalism turning to political radicalism).
CONFIDENTIAL
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