15-JUN-1993 14:17
DEL (UK)
33 1 45249837 P.20
OECD FUTURE STUDIES INFORMATION BASE
3521
CONSUMPTION AND LIVING STANDARDS IN CHINA
By Chai, Joseph C.H., in: The China Quarterly, No. 131, PP. 721-749 (1992)
China's consumption and living standards over 1978-90 are reviewed and the outlook to 2000 is assessed. Per capita income is projected to double to $1000 over the 1990s (i.e. the level of Taiwan in 1975-79 and Japan in the mid-1960s). If food consumption in 2000 matches Taiwan's in 1975-79, meat consumption would grow rapidly, implying higher grain requirements too: 468 million tons (mt) in 2000, including seed. Grain output is expected to be 500 mt, versus 404 int in 1990, i.e. a 2% p.a. growth rate. Allowing for a milling rate of 0.87, grain availability would be 435 mt, so imports (33 mt) would be double 1990 levels (even higher if population growth exceeds the 1.2% p.a. target). Demand for consumer durables will also expand. China in 1990 had only 38 washing machines and 12 refrigerators per 100 households in 1990, versus 85 and 77 respectively for Japan in 1967. If electricity and piped water supplies become available, markets for washing machines, refrigerators, vacuum cleaners, and even air conditioners could grow dramatically. However, matching Japan's 1967 rates of coverage would require an enormous expansion in output, and such growth could be severely constrained by scarce investment resources and foreign exchange constraints. Urban housing may show strong growth: average living space in 1990 was 6.7 m2 per person, while the official norm is 8m2. The government may be reluctant to increase the budget share of 'nonproductive' investment, so private capital will be needed. Services accounted for 10% of family budgets in 1990 (25% in Japan in 1960-65) so growth is likely, but private capital will be vital here too.
GD: Country Studies; Economic Development
SD: Private Consumption; Household Consumption; Consumer Goods; Cereals; Food Requirements:
Standard of Living; Per Capita Income
GE: China
LO: OECD, Development Centre Library, Paris, FR
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