TNAG-2677-FCO40-3874-Hong-Kong-garrison-withdrawal-plan-1993 — Page 292

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battalion) and to one battalion in September 1994 (when the two

Gurkha battalions amalgamate). In the past we have undertaken

to inform the Chinese of our plans for the withdrawal of the

garrison as they develop. We last did so in May 1992 when we

undertook not to reduce the garrison to two battalions until

1994, but indicated that we planned to reduce to one battalion

in 1996.

4.

We and Hong Kong believe that we should present this new

timetable as the result of further careful planning in the light

of our experience of the Royal Hong Kong Police's operations at

the border. The Governor believes (Hong Kong telno 972

attached) that to minimise the Chinese reaction we should give them three weeks' notice of a public announcement.

Sir R McLaren agrees (Peking telno 28). There is a risk that

the longer the delay between our decision and the announcement

of that decision, the more likely it is that it will leak, and

thus damage our ability to influence how the new withdrawal plan plays in the press. However, this must be set against the risk of an adverse reaction from the Chinese if they are not given adequate warning of the decision. We understand on present indications that Parliament may rise for the summer recess in the week of 19 July. An announcement by MOD-inspired PQ on that

date therefore would not be too late.

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5.

The Governor proposes that we should tell the Chinese that the decision is the culmination of a period of planning; that the decision is consistent with our undertakings at previous briefings; and that our new plan takes account of those points which they have stated are important to them, namely that all three services and at least a quarter of our 1987 garrison strength (ie one battalion plus support) should remain until

1997.

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