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battalion) and to one battalion in September 1994 (when the two
Gurkha battalions amalgamate). In the past we have undertaken
to inform the Chinese of our plans for the withdrawal of the
garrison as they develop. We last did so in May 1992 when we
undertook not to reduce the garrison to two battalions until
1994, but indicated that we planned to reduce to one battalion
in 1996.
4.
We and Hong Kong believe that we should present this new
timetable as the result of further careful planning in the light
of our experience of the Royal Hong Kong Police's operations at
the border. The Governor believes (Hong Kong telno 972
attached) that to minimise the Chinese reaction we should give them three weeks' notice of a public announcement.
Sir R McLaren agrees (Peking telno 28). There is a risk that
the longer the delay between our decision and the announcement
of that decision, the more likely it is that it will leak, and
thus damage our ability to influence how the new withdrawal plan plays in the press. However, this must be set against the risk of an adverse reaction from the Chinese if they are not given adequate warning of the decision. We understand on present indications that Parliament may rise for the summer recess in the week of 19 July. An announcement by MOD-inspired PQ on that
date therefore would not be too late.
I
5.
The Governor proposes that we should tell the Chinese that the decision is the culmination of a period of planning; that the decision is consistent with our undertakings at previous briefings; and that our new plan takes account of those points which they have stated are important to them, namely that all three services and at least a quarter of our 1987 garrison strength (ie one battalion plus support) should remain until
1997.
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