TNAG-2451-FCO40-3568-Future-of-Hong-Kong-constitutional-development-1992 — Page 86

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SECRET

FM PEKING

TO FLASH FCO

TELNO 1500

OF 2810O4Z OCTOBER 92

INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG

SECRET

Seene

176676 MDADAN 6055

YOUR TELNO 846 AND HONG KONG TELNO 2575:

DEVELOPMENT: CHINESE STRATEGY

SUMMARY

1.

CONSTITUTIONAL

CHINESE STRATEGY WILL BE TO UNDERMINE SUPPORT FOR GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS IN HONG KONG AND PERSUADE HIM AND HMG THAT THEY MUST BE CHANGED. IN SHORT TERM UNLIKELY TO HAVE MAJOR EFFECTS ON WIDER RELATIONSHIP UNLESS WE TAKE THE INITIATIVE. BUT WILL DO SO IF DISPUTE DRAGS ON.

2.

CHINESE WILL NOT ACQUIESCE IN ELECTORAL LEGISLATION WHICH

THEY OPPOSE. RISKS INVOLVED IN GOING IT ALONE.

DETAIL

3

AS YOU SAY, IT IS HARD TO BE DEFINITE ABOUT HOW THE CHINESE

WILL PLAY THEIR HAND OVER THE COMING MONTHS. THE FOLLOWING THOUGHTS ARE THE BEST FORECAST I CAN GIVE, IN THE LIGHT OF PAST CHINESE BEHAVIOUR IN THE HONG KONG CONTEXT AND IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH

OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES.

THE CHINESE WILL SEE THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD IN TERMS OF

A SHARP 'STRUGGLE'. THEIR MAIN AIMS WILL BE:

(I) TO UNDERMINE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS BY

MOUNTING A PROLONGED PROPAGANDA BARRAGE: AND

(II) BY THIS AND OTHER MEANS, TO CONVINCE THE GOVERNOR AND HMG THAT OUR PRESENT POSITION CANNOT BE SUSTAINED AND MUST THEREFORE BE

CHANGED.

5. UNDER (I) THE CHINESE ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THE THEMES WHICH

HAVE ALREADY EMERGED IN RECENT WEEKS. THESE INCLUDE:

(A) THEIR CLAIM THAT THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS ARE INCONSISTENT

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