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SECRET
FM PEKING
TO FLASH FCO
TELNO 1500
OF 2810O4Z OCTOBER 92
INFO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
SECRET
Seene
176676 MDADAN 6055
YOUR TELNO 846 AND HONG KONG TELNO 2575:
DEVELOPMENT: CHINESE STRATEGY
SUMMARY
1.
CONSTITUTIONAL
CHINESE STRATEGY WILL BE TO UNDERMINE SUPPORT FOR GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS IN HONG KONG AND PERSUADE HIM AND HMG THAT THEY MUST BE CHANGED. IN SHORT TERM UNLIKELY TO HAVE MAJOR EFFECTS ON WIDER RELATIONSHIP UNLESS WE TAKE THE INITIATIVE. BUT WILL DO SO IF DISPUTE DRAGS ON.
2.
CHINESE WILL NOT ACQUIESCE IN ELECTORAL LEGISLATION WHICH
THEY OPPOSE. RISKS INVOLVED IN GOING IT ALONE.
DETAIL
3
AS YOU SAY, IT IS HARD TO BE DEFINITE ABOUT HOW THE CHINESE
WILL PLAY THEIR HAND OVER THE COMING MONTHS. THE FOLLOWING THOUGHTS ARE THE BEST FORECAST I CAN GIVE, IN THE LIGHT OF PAST CHINESE BEHAVIOUR IN THE HONG KONG CONTEXT AND IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH
OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES.
THE CHINESE WILL SEE THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD IN TERMS OF
A SHARP 'STRUGGLE'. THEIR MAIN AIMS WILL BE:
(I) TO UNDERMINE PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS BY
MOUNTING A PROLONGED PROPAGANDA BARRAGE: AND
(II) BY THIS AND OTHER MEANS, TO CONVINCE THE GOVERNOR AND HMG THAT OUR PRESENT POSITION CANNOT BE SUSTAINED AND MUST THEREFORE BE
CHANGED.
5. UNDER (I) THE CHINESE ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THE THEMES WHICH
HAVE ALREADY EMERGED IN RECENT WEEKS. THESE INCLUDE:
(A) THEIR CLAIM THAT THE GOVERNOR'S PROPOSALS ARE INCONSISTENT
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