TNAG-2237-FCO40-3216-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1991 — Page 62

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REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE REGION

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SOUTH AND EAST

SOUTH EAST ASIA

1.

Although events in the Far East have been unspectacular in comparison with the historic happenings in Europe and the war in the Middle East, regional rapprochement over long-standing issues has been a feature of the last two years. The Malaysian Communist Party agreed formally to a cessation of armed resistance. Rebel factions in Cambodia agreed a ceasefire and the formation of a Supreme National Council to oversee the country's administration and the use of UN forces to supervise future democratic elections. The UN advance mission (UNAMIC) deployed to Cambodia in late 1991 and the main force (UNTAC) is due to deploy in Spring 1992. Countries

Countries with claims in the potentially volatile Spratly Islands met in Indonesia to discuss peaceful means of developing their individual interests. The Northern Territories, a final territorial impediment to improved Soviet/Japanese relations, may now, for the first time, be on the negotiating table. Both North and South Korea have joined the UN which, together with a gradual draw-down of US forces in the south of the peninsula, has contributed to the easing of tensions across the demilitarized zone.

2.

There

remains continued potential for regional instability. At the geographic centre of the SE Asian stage, the Philippines hosts a tenuous and fragile regime. The campaign against disparate and numerous communist enclaves continues, and the risk of a coup d'etat is never far from the surface. The US air base at Clark Field has closed following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, and withdrawal from Subic Naval Base seems probable following the Filipino Senate's rejection of the new agreement. So far, Singapore is the only country to have offered some alternative facilities to the US; this for largely national reasons. Speculation continues over reductions in overall US regional presence and the likely countries who may be tempted to fill any perceived vacuum. India is regarded by a number of SE Asian nations (and Japan) as the country most likely to develop expansionist tendencies following any reduction in Super-power presence.

3.

Following the Tiananmen Square incident, the subsequent EEC embargo and China's international isolation, the need to continue discussions on our eventual withdrawal from Hong Kong led to renewal of Ministerial contact with the Chinese Government in July 1990. The UK theme, continually emphasised to the Chinese, was that the well-being of Hong Kong is in the interests of China, the UK and Hong Kong itself. Ministers agreed that we should be rebuilding our relationships with China and the main focus of these efforts were the discussions within

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