SECRET UK EYES A
the JLG. Some relaxation in the post-Tiananmen stance was agreed in mid 1991: renewed access to MOD for Chinese Defence Staff in London, re-establishment of contacts between UK and Chinese attaches in third countries, and the preparation of contingency plans by the post in Peking for resumption of training for selected Chinese individuals in the UK. This was followed by a breakthrough with the Chinese in the negotiations over the new Hong Kong airport. The way
way is
therefore set fair for the eventual restoration of defence relationships with the Chinese to pre-June 1989 levels, although it is recognised that any initiative here must be led or authorised by the FCO.
4.
1990/91 have been encouraging years in the development of our Defence links with Japan. This is significant at a time when Japan is under
under pressure
pressure both
both internally and externally to acquire a political role which more closely matches its economic power. The Japanese value highly British views on those major European and strategic issues which stem from the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the USSR, and to this end successful bilateral visits at PUS and COS level and below have taken place. There are at last some positive signs of a decrease in tension between North and South Korea. Following the successful applications by both countries for membership of the UN in 1991, the Peninsula's potential as the regional military flashpoint is set to diminish. Future discussions may lead to the substitution of the existing Armistice with a peace agreement based on confidence-building measures and arms reductions. Against this background and other, domestic, considerations, the US is planning a gradual withdrawal of 7,000 land and air forces in 1992 and a modification of command structures that will enable it to assume a less prominent role. Although the US relationship is the keystone of the Republic of Korea's Defence policy and is likely to remain so, the Republic is moving towards diversifying its relationships, particularly in the Defence sales field. It is here that the most progress in the development of UK Defence relations has occurred and where the greatest future potential lies. The future of the Honour Guard to the UN Command contingent is under discussion but may well be pre-empted by a political solution to the existing Armistice Agreement.
5.
Despite an overwhelming electoral victory by the National League for Democracy in Burma (Myanmar), there is no indication that the military regime is yet ready to transfer power to a constitutional assembly. Indeed, intimidation of the civilian population and recent arms deals with China indicate that further consolidation of the position of the military may continue, provoking repetition of the unrest in 1988. There have been no significant Defence contacts during 1990/91 and the Defence Attache (DA) is to be withdrawn in 1992. In Cambodia the signing
signing and implementation of a a comprehensive political settlement under UN auspices has hopefuly brought a permanent end to conflict and the prospect of a democratically elected government.
Thailand continues its successful economic development and the present military government which mounted a coup in 1991 continues to pursue the aim of turning Indo-China into a profitable regional marketplace. UK Defence relations
C:\WP50X00AREP\GENERAL.91
E:\ROW \OOAREP.GEN
C-2 SECRET UK EYES A
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.