TNAG-2237-FCO40-3216-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1991 — Page 6

NATO EUROPE

CONFIDENTIAL UK EYES A

•

I believe that the reduction from eleven to ten places can

best be effected by offering alternate year places to Spain and

Portugal, with the latter being offered a firm place this year

and the former appearing high on the reserve list. It would have

been possible to reduce Germany's allocation from three to two,

but I believe that the size and importance within Europe of the

united Germany continues to justify the award of three places.

Other alternate year pairs are Belgium/Netherlands and

Norway/Denmark. Belgium were unable to take up the place offered

for 1992 (the Netherlands attended

attended instead) and I therefore

propose to offer them one this year. Denmark have a student in

1992, SO it would be appropriate to offer the 1993 place to Norway. In sum, I propose three places for Germany, with one each going to Belgium, France, Greece, Italy, Norway, Portugal and

Turkey, with Spain appearing on the reserve list.

NON-NATO EUROPE

8. For this year, I have preserved the distinction between NATO

and non-NATO Europe, but it seems likely that such a separation will become increasingly artificial and that in future years it

will be more sensible to treat Europe, including the former WTO

nations and the successor states to the Soviet Union, as a single

entity. Despite receiving an early invitation for the 1993 course

last year, Switzerland gave been unable to provide a candidate.

I would instead propose that Sweden be invited on the 1993

course. From Eastern Europe, Poland already have a student on the

1992 course, so I would propose to offer the remaining two places to Czechoslovakia and Hungary. For the future, we will need to

consider the case for inviting a student from the Soviet Union

or one of its successor states. [Indeed, given the pace of events

at the moment this may arise sooner rather than later, and the College have agreed, exceptionally, that if it became possible to invite a Soviet student in 1993 they would be prepared to take

CONFIDENTIAL UK EYES A