SECRET
UK EYES A
Paragraph 22, third sentence: insert ", increasingly, on" before "large scale organised crime
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This Annex should also make some reference to the threat from drugs. We would suggest inserting the following new
paragraph, perhaps as a new para 8 bis (although not strictly an economic consideration):
"Narcotic drugs. The international drugs business,
along with its resources, power, influence and tendency to violence, will continue to grow rapidly. Drugs-producing countries, particularly in the Andean region, South-West and South-East Asia, will be particularly at risk. But those on trafficking routes, which are already diversifying fast, will be further threatened. Small countries such as our Caribbean Dependent Territories will be in particular hazard. Many of the larger, more organised criminal groups will only effectively be countered by action across the board, including military and para-military measures."
Appendix 5, para 3, first sentence: redraft to read
"In the Middle East, after the rearmament and reorientation needed by the GCC countries as a result of the Gulf War, the continuation of a relatively static
ANNEX D
Paragraph 2: redraft to read:
"The stability of the Caribbean will continue to be mainly underwritten by the USA. But Britain is likely to continue to be responsible for the defence and security of most, if not all, of the five remaining Caribbean Dependent Territories. That responsibility gives Britain a stake in the overall stability of the region, especially the Eastern Caribbean." Left-wing extremists
Paragraph 4: add new final sentence:
"The sensitive issue of exploration for and possibly exploitation of mineral deposits (principally oil) around the Falklands will require careful handling in the coming years. The potential for disagreements or misunderstanding over oil is significant and carries with it the danger of upsetting Anglo-Argentine relations with the consquent implications for the size of the threat to the islands from Argentina."
Paragraph 8: redraft as follows:
"There is a continuing danger of internal unrest in the Arab world. The armed forces of the region are generally large, are lavishly equipped with advanced
i
SECRET
UK EYES A
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