TNAG-2237-FCO40-3216-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1991 — Page 33

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UK EYES A

be extant, together with the governmental letters offering defensive military assistance to the UAE and Oman, and the defence agreement currently under

negotiation with Kuwait. In all these countries, and in Saudi Arabia, any UK Loan Service Personnel

the

Paragraph 8: redraft final sentence to conclude " United States, Australia, the Pacific region and Western Europe."

Paragraph 14: is now overtaken. The Warsaw Pact no longer exists, and NATO's structure and strategy are being adapted in response. We would challenge the judgement that NAto "is always liable to be out-manouvered politically". On the contrary, NATO's record of seizing the high ground has been a good one. But we would agree that NATO will not formally extend its area. Greek and Turkish membership of the WEU are unlikely in the foreseeable future. The last sentence of the paragraph should read:

11

a Soviet threat. is capable of playing a

But the WEU has shown that it limited but useful role out of

area, eg in the Gulf in 1987-1988 and 1990-1991. Discussion in the WEU, NATO and the Inter-Governmental Conference of the EC may lead to the WEU taking on a larger operational role out of area in the future, though the scope of operations it could undertake would necessarily be limited by the capabilities of the forces at its disposal".

Paragraph 17 is inaccurate.

Redraft to read:

"With the end of the Cold War, the United Nations has gained renewed authority. Soviet cooperation and Chinese acquiescence were vital to the UN's resolute handling of the Gulf crisis and have enabled the Permanent Five members of the Security Council to act as a virtual directorate. The UN's ability to take Gulf-style enforcement action in other future crises will depend to a large extent upon the survival of the Security Council in its present form. It remains to be seen whether the Soviet Union will remain a permanent member or if Russia will be able to take over its position. China might become more antagonistic to Western aims. It will also be harder for the UK to maintain its permanent membership in the years to come. One argument in our favour will be UK participation in enforcement operations, thereby demonstrating that we are capable of fulfilling our Charter responsibilities."

Paragraph 21, fourth sentence: redraft to read "South Africa will retain her position as the dominant regional power, but may cut some conventional aspects of her military capabilities in favour of CW or nuclear weapons. Fifth sentence: delete "In these circumstances ... "; replace "is likely to" by "will, for political and commercial reasons",

SECRET

UK EYES A