SECRET
UK EYES A
conventional weapons and are increasingly acquiring a CBW capability and also medium range ballistic missiles to supplement the bombers already in service. There will be a need for expansion in the armed forces of the GCC in the aftermath of the Gulf crisis. Iraq's military capabilities will be diluted at least in the short term by the embargo and other intrusive monitoring put in place by the UN Security Council. The burgeoning drug problem in the Near East, especially in Lebanon, is likely to be accompanied by an increase in narcotics related terrorism and arms trafficking. The geographical proximity of Cyprus will mean that the island will also be affected."
Paragraph 9: first sentence: we would be inclined to end this sentence at "Arab World region."
Paragraph 10, second sentence: replace "Egypt may, however " by "...Egypt should, however ...
11
Paragraph 12, first sentence: begin "Most of the countries sentence by:
" Redraft from "also from tribal" in second
"But there have been encouraging changes over the past year in many countries towards more accountable governments and better economic policies. In addition, withdrawal of external support, in particular Soviet support, has led to the collapse of a number of regimes. South Africa is following the same path towards more representative government, but these developments will not necessarily produce better administration and greater prosperity."
Paragraph 13: redraft to read:
"Political change in South Africa will initially be welcomed by its neighbours because they will hope for less South African interference in their own affairs. There are signs of radical cuts in South Africa's military capability, but the regional predominance of this large and powerful State will continue."
TD3ADF
SECRET
UK EYES A
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