TNAG-2195-FCO40-3132-Hong-Kong-nationality-package-1990 — Page 102

From: G N Stadlen

Hong Kong Bill Unit Ext 2250

Mr J Morris, FCO

сс Mr R M Morris

Mrs Grimsey

нко 340/4

RECEIVED IN REGISTRY

0 1 JUN 1990

DESA OFFICER INDEX

PA

Mr Ramell Mr Jackson Mr Page

Miss Rae

REGISTRY

Action Taken

pa.

350)

√2014

AVERAGE FAMILY SIZE

One of the speaking notes in the FCO briefing pack needs to be amended. This is the one on average family size, in which you would have Ministers stating that average family size in Hong Kong across the whole population is 3.9. This is inconsistent with the analysis by our Statistical Department of census data provided by Hong Kong. This suggests that average family size weighted for the social groups most likely to succeed under the selection scheme, is 2.3 including heads of households. The figure rises to 3.1 if one assumes that only those aged 30 to 40 will be selected. Our statisticians estimate that the maximum commitment - in terms of heads of households, existing spouses and minor children, future spouses acquired up to 1997 and future children (including those born into the next century) - is about 190,000 (equivalent to a multiplier of 3.8).

In presentational terms, in order to avoid confusion, it seems best to stick to the figure previously quoted, ie 225,000, while indicating that this represents an upper limit and that the actual figure could be lower.

I attached a revised suggested speaking note on the multiplier.

GW Halla

GN STADLEN

18 April 1990