From: G N Stadlen
Hong Kong Bill Unit Ext 2250
Mr J Morris, FCO
сс Mr R M Morris
Mrs Grimsey
нко 340/4
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY
0 1 JUN 1990
DESA OFFICER INDEX
PA
Mr Ramell Mr Jackson Mr Page
Miss Rae
REGISTRY
Action Taken
pa.
350)
√2014
AVERAGE FAMILY SIZE
One of the speaking notes in the FCO briefing pack needs to be amended. This is the one on average family size, in which you would have Ministers stating that average family size in Hong Kong across the whole population is 3.9. This is inconsistent with the analysis by our Statistical Department of census data provided by Hong Kong. This suggests that average family size weighted for the social groups most likely to succeed under the selection scheme, is 2.3 including heads of households. The figure rises to 3.1 if one assumes that only those aged 30 to 40 will be selected. Our statisticians estimate that the maximum commitment - in terms of heads of households, existing spouses and minor children, future spouses acquired up to 1997 and future children (including those born into the next century) - is about 190,000 (equivalent to a multiplier of 3.8).
In presentational terms, in order to avoid confusion, it seems best to stick to the figure previously quoted, ie 225,000, while indicating that this represents an upper limit and that the actual figure could be lower.
I attached a revised suggested speaking note on the multiplier.
GW Halla
GN STADLEN
18 April 1990