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above, we indicate our willingness at Ottawa to see Bermuda and the
Caribbean territories included but say that before we can make any
commitment we shall need to consult their local governments.
7. As regards our remoter territories, the Falkland Islands and
Pitcairn have no East/West arms control interest and are manifestly
outside the geographical area which NATO has proposed. In the case
of the Falklands separate confidence-building measures have just
been negotiated after some difficulty with the Argentinians. I do
not think we will be challenged over their exclusion. On British
Indian Ocean Territory our position is flexible: we have no
objections from a military point of view to overflights and have
heard that US do not either. But there are grounds for excluding
BIOT and Ascension Island on the basis that this helps maintain the argument about geographical scope in relation to the Falkland Islands. On balance, I think the argument lies in favour of being as open as possible, especially since BIOT and Ascension contain US military bases and US are permitting a wide degree of access to
their own territory. I recommend we include these two, subject to
confirming formally that US have no objections.
8.
The biggest difficulties arise with Hong Kong which is covered
under any interpretation of geographical scope. We would need to
seek Chinese agreement in principle to the inclusion of Hong Kong if
it was intended to continue after 1997 (the Open Skies treaty itself
is of unlimited duration); inclusion of Hong Kong would otherwise
only be in respect of the period up to 1997. Even up to 1997
Chinese agreement would be necessary if observation aircraft needed to enter Chinese airspace. The Chinese are unlikely to agree in
either event. There are no arms control reasons to include Hong
Kong other than the general one of openness which is insufficient to
tip the balance given political sensitivities.
9.
We do not know to what extent the Soviet Union might wish to
retain the option of overflights of Hong Kong at the risk of picking a fight with the Chinese.
are to exclude Hong Kong I suggest
If we
we try to tell the Russians in advance what we intend to do: they
may be disinclined to argue as they will face their own problems
HDBADG
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