TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 128

SECRET UK EYES A

Pacific Basin. To this end, she will encourage strong economic ties with most Asian nations, including China, though these nations will continue to regard her with suspicion and fear (7). She will remain heavily dependent on the Gulf for her energy supplies, and in view of her potential military

strength it would be prudent of the West not to add to

possible pressures within Japan to acquire the means of protecting her distant interests. The UK's relations with China are likely to depend considerably on the nature of the transfer of power in Hong Kong. Though a direct threat to the FPDA area seems unlikely, her ability to export modern weapons

systems, including BM, could enable her to make mischief by

proxy. India will probably seek to dominate the Indian Ocean and the areas immediately along her borders, and has

demonstrated a readiness to deploy forces to defend what she

sees as her interests, including those of peoples whom she regards as ethnic kin. However, any adverse effect on British

interests seems more likely to be the consequence of Indian

action against a third party, such as Nepal, rather than of direct hostility. The BIOT might form a possible source of

contention if the US were to withdraw its forces.

4.

SE Asia. The countries of chief security and economic

concern to the UK seem likely to enjoy increasing affluence,

and the risk of serious external threats developing against

any of them seem low. However, those regions which profess

communism face major tasks of economic re-construction and may

suffer from internal turbulence. In these circumstances the UK will have interest in promoting stability by exploiting the Commonwealth links, supporting extant Defence Agreements and encouraging ASEAN, all activities which have predominantly low-key military connotations.

'JIC (88)19.

anb.15?

B-3

UK EYES A

SECRET