TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 127

SECRET UK EYES A

dominant military power on the European land-mass, and, perceived change within it will to large extent be the determinant of change in Western European military policies and postures. The Soviet government is likely to be cautious in the projection of military power beyond its borders, but it will continue to work to divide the West and to wish to alter

the global correlation of forces in its favour. In this it is

to some extent favoured by geography, since the Soviet Union's position enables it to operate both as an Asian and as a European power. Following the withdrawal from Afghanistan the Soviet military presence 00A is predominantly naval, and there are no signs of any developing capability for sustained combat at extended ranges from its territory (2).

3. Potential Superpowers. Japan will be an economic superpower but will probably rest content with the power and influence which this will giver her (3). China and India both have great economic and industrial leeway to make up and are likely to be absorbed with internal developments to the exclusion of all but regional military aspirations, though these will be significant. Japan can expect a per-capita income on a par with that of the US, with a GDP approaching 50% of the American figure ("). Her banks will probably be more influential in international financial affairs than US

ones, and her current investments in education portend the best educated work force in the world (5). She will prefer to remain under the US security umbrella, and if American presence and influence in the region wane she will probably endeavour to fill the gap with her economic and political influence (°). Japan fears the development of protectionist blocs in America and Europe, and will seek to guard against them by creating her own zone of economic security in the

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2JIC(88) (N) 63

JIC (88) 19 JIC (88) 19. JIC(88) 19. JIC (88) 19.

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The Soviet Threat to UK OOA Interests. Japan: Towards the Year 2000.

anb.1s2

B-2

UK EYES A

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