TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 129

SECRET

UK EYES A

5. SW Asia. Developments within Islam are likely to provide a major force in SW Asia. This theme will be developed in an area given to abiding communal tensions, regional rivalries and border disputes, and endemic poverty in those countries

not well-endowed with oil. In the absence of comprehensive control agreements there will also be increasing regional CBW and nuclear capabilities () () (10). Thus, stability is liable to be a fragile commodity in an area of prime strategic importance to the UK and to the West. This importance will

continue to extend to the Indian Ocean, both as the main

commercial highway to and from the Persian Gulf and as a means

of bringing Western maritime power to bear in the Gulf area.

6.

The Mediterranean. There will be continuing potential for large-scale instability in the states bordering the

Mediterranean's southern and eastern shores. The various

combinations of political volatility, religious fanaticism and

land-hunger are conducive to violence throughout the region.

Such feuds are liable to be exported and there will be risks of involvement both for EC nations and for the superpowers. Terrorism will be endemic and there will exist capabilities

for direct attack on NATO and EC nations and on British

territory, while the technical potential will exist for direct BM attacks on the UK itself ("). CBW and nuclear capabilities will exist in the region (12) (13) (14). The area will thus be

one of major strategic concern to the UK.

BJIC (85) 14 Nations

The Chemical Warfare Capabilities of Third World

JIC (86) 11 - The Biological Warfare Capabilities of Third World Nations.

JIC (85) 5

C

11JIC (88) 16 World.

12

JIC(85) 14.

13JIC (86) 11. 14JIC(85) 5.

Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Next 10 Years. - Ballistic Missile Proliferation in the Third

anb.1s2

B-4

UK EYES A