SECRET UK EYES A
28.
Another area where a change of emphasis seems possible stems from the growing success of Japanese overseas trade as she moves steadily towards the position of premier nation. The enormous trading surplusses generated are being reinvested in massive programmes in many overseas countries, not least in the UK, and in the light of these developments it seems there must come a time when she will be seeking foreign and defence policies that can ensure a more effective and stable environment in which her rapidly increasing overseas investments can flourish. In this respect, I heard during my visit that the Gulf war had caused considerable soul-searching with such a high proportion of Japan's energy supplies originating from the area. But although the Constitution could probably have allowed the deployment of MSDF minesweepers to the Gulf as a purely defensive measure, their crews may have been placed in an unacceptable position under Japanese law if they had been required to use their weapons, even in self-defence.
29. Although Japan may become more outward looking in its foreign and defence policy to match her growing world trade and economic status, I saw no sign that the special bilateral defence relationship with the United States will be put at serious risk in the foreseeable future. However, I did detect some signs of stress and strain even in that area where the huge US imbalance in trade with Japan could eventually bear on the security relationship as well. A serious concern of the moment is the FS-X future combat aircraft programme, where Japan's patience has worn thin at the failure of the US to transfer under the draft agreement more technology and development work. At first sight this 137 aircraft programme launched on the present basis could yet turn out to be a highly expensive and growing irritant; but only time will tell, and in the meantime it should offer some useful high value work for UK companies at sub-contract levels.
30. During my visit I was questioned in surprising detail about a number of UK weapons and equipment, which gave me a useful opportunity to explain their battle worthiness (based on the Falkland and Gulf War experiences) and their high interoperability with US equipment. When I indicated the current high level of our worldwide defence exports and, in particular, the number of UK weapons and systems bought or manufactured under licence by the US, this appeared to cause some surprise.
31. With a total constitutional ban on the export of defence equipment from Japan, our defence manufacturers will always have an uphill task forging effective commercial and marketing arrangements with Japanese companies, but there still appear to be some potentially worthwhile prospects, including the 81mm Mortar and its ammunition, and sub-systems for the FS-X programme. The MSDF also has a continuing interest in the Harrier despite current problems in defining the carrier needed to operate it as a defensive system under the Constitution. Other programmes discussed included LAW 80 (which would appear to be a very suitable weapon for their non-mechanised infantry and reserve forces), the 105mm Light Gun and thermal imagers (IT) in a variety of applications. In this latter TI Category, particular interest
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8 of 10 SECRET UK EYES A
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