TNAG-1821-FCO40-2584-Emigration-from-Hong-Kong-1988 — Page 5

are

If the proposals in paragraphs 7 - 12 above

the approved,

targets for the 1991-94 triennium will be 48,550 fte students (details at Annex C). Compared with the planned provision of 40,050 fte students by 1991, there will be

increase of

fte students. 8,500

In terms of opportunity for tertiary education, the planned provision of first-year-first-degree places by 1994 will cater for nearly 11% of young people in the relevant age group of 17 to 20 years, compared with about 8% by 1991. Including non-degree places at the existing UPGC-funded

institutions,

percentages will be 13% in 1991 and over 15% in 1994.

the

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By the year 2000, the planned provision will be 62,100 fte students. 14.5% of young people in the relevant age group will be able to enrol for first-year-first-degree places, and 6% for non-degree

non-degree places, at the UPGC-funded institutions. Details are at Annex C. Specific student number targets for each of the triennia 1994-97 and 1997-2000 will be submitted for approval nearer the time.

15

If all the above targets are met, the expansion of tertiary places between now and the year 2000 will represent an average growth of over 5% compound per annum.

Longer-Term Planning

16

necessary,

As four out of six tertiary institutions will have reached planned capacity by 1997 and the remaining two will be in the same position within another three years, it may be subject to demand, to establish another new institution of a major size (e.g. a third polytechnic) early in the next century. Since the planning lead time is about six years, it is

is intended that

of this consideration possibility should commence around 1994. By then it will be possible to take into account

into account the development of the Open Learning Institute (planned to be established in mid-1989).

Financial Implications

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It is estimated that a triennial grant of approximately $9,230 million at mid-1988 prices will be required to meet the cost of 48,550 fte places planned for the 1991-94 triennium. This compares with a figure of $7,586 million at mid-1988 prices which would have been required to meet the cost of the originally planned 42,500 fte places for this triennium. Recurrent expenditure of approximately $8 million will also be required for the validation and revalidation of courses at the Polytechnics. The capital cost of the planned expansion of HKU, CUHK and CPHK in the 1991-94 triennium is estimated at $530 million.