TNAG-1597-FCO40-2182-Hong-Kong-1987-Review-of-Representative-Government-1987 — Page 198

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THOROUGHLY EMPHASISED TO THE CHINESE OVER THE MONTHS IN ADVANCE

OF PUBLICATION. THE SECRETARY OF STATE/WU MEETING IN MARCH, A

VISIT TO PEKING BY MR RENTON IN APRIL AND DEMARCHES BY SIR R

EVANS COULD ALL BE USED FOR THAT PURPOSE,

(II)

THE TREATMENT OF DIRECT ELECTIONS IN THE GREEN PAPER

WOULD NEED PARTICULARLY CLOSE DISCUSSION. THIS MIGHT BE ON THE

BASIS OF A PIECE OF PAPER WHICH WOULD IN EFFECT BE AN ADVANCE

EXTRACT FROM THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (BUT NOT EXPLICITLY PRESENTED

AS SUCH),

(III) THE FULL TEXT OF THE GREEN PAPER WILL BE PASSED TO THE

CHINESE SOME TEN DAYS IN ADVANCE OF PUBLICATION. IT WOULD (NEXT

WORD UNDERLINED) NOT BE PRESENTED AS A DRAFT. BUT WE SHOULD HAVE

TO RECOGNISE (AS WE DID OVER THE SEPTEMBER 1984 WHITE PAPER ON

THE JOINT DECLARATION) THAT IF THE CHINESE CHOSE TO PRESS FOR

TEXTUAL CHANGES THIS WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO RESIST.

24.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER HOW THE WHITE PAPER WILL HAVE

TO BE HANDLED WITH THE CHINESE. THIS WILL DEPEND CRUCIALLY ON

THE NATURE OF THE PROSPECT WHICH IT PUTS FORWARD.

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF THE 1987 REVIEW

25.

OPINION IN HONG KONG ON THE CENTRAL ISSUE IN THE 1987

REVIEW, DIRECT ELECTIONS, IS SHARPLY DIVIDED. IT HAS TENDED TO

POLARISE IN RECENT MONTHS. AT PRESENT IT SEEMS MOST IMPROBABLE

THAT A CLEAR CONSENSUS WILL EMERGE IN THE COURSE OF THE REVIEW.

BUT OPINION COULD EVOLVE QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY, AND PERHAPS IN

UNPREDICTABLE WAYS. THE REVIEW WILL ITSELF STIMULATE

CONSIDERABLE DEBATE ON THE ISSUE.

THE CHINESE WILL PROBABLY

CONTINUE TO MAKE KNOWN THEIR OWN MISGIVINGS ABOUT DIRECT

ELECTIONS: THIS COULD AFFECT OPINION EITHER WAY, DEPENDING ON THE

SUBTLETY OF THEIR TACTICS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CHINESE

HAVE THEIR OWN DEFINITION OF QUOTE CONSENSUS UNQUOTE: ZHOU NAN

TOLD SIR E YOUDE ON 5 DECEMBER THAT IT WOULD BE QUOTE

UNACCEPTABLE TO PEOPLE UNQUOTE IF WE DESCRIBED AS A CONSENSUS A

SITUATION IN WHICH THEIR WAS A DIVERGENCE OF VIEWS.

26.

AT PRESENT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE OUTCOME OF THE REVIEW

ON THE DIRECT ELECTIONS ISSUE WILL BE ALONG ONE OF THREE POSSIBLE

LINES:

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